With the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams in 2024, a seismic shift is underway in how sports betting enthusiasts approach the game. For the first time, the highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5 conferences is guaranteed a playoff spot, and sportsbooks are already seeing intriguing action on underdog teams. But is betting on these dark horses a smart play or just a longshot dream?
Why Group of 5 Teams Are Worth Betting On
Historically, Power 5 teams have dominated the college football landscape, leaving little room for smaller programs to shine. However, the expanded playoff format levels the playing field. Teams like the Liberty Flames, Tulane Green Wave, and Memphis Tigers are already making waves.
Take Liberty, for example. Led by dual-threat quarterback Kaidon Salter, the Flames boast a dynamic offense that’s become a bettor’s dream. Salter’s stats tell the story: over 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards in 2023. With such explosive potential, Liberty’s current odds of +5000 to make the playoffs could offer massive returns. By comparison, perennial powerhouse Georgia sits at -150, a low-risk, low-reward wager.
The Data Behind the Bets
According to official NCAA statistics, the Group of 5 teams have consistently increased their win rates against Power 5 opponents over the past five years, jumping from 15% in 2018 to 23% in 2023. Additionally, spreads for these matchups have narrowed, signaling growing parity.
Here’s a closer look at recent betting trends:
- Against the Spread (ATS): A group of 5 teams covered 64% of the time in games against Power 5 opponents in 2023.
- Over/Under: High-scoring offenses like Memphis often push games over the total points line, with the Tigers hitting the over in 8 of their last 10 games.
Final Thoughts: Betting Smart
While underdog betting carries risk, the new playoff structure makes Group of 5 teams more attractive than ever. Wagering on teams like Tulane (+3000) to secure a playoff spot or betting the over on Memphis’ point totals could yield big payouts.
